{"id":318129,"date":"2026-10-04T19:10:55","date_gmt":"2026-10-04T17:10:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tuzlainfo.ba\/?p=318129"},"modified":"2026-10-04T19:10:55","modified_gmt":"2026-10-04T17:10:55","slug":"niza-izlaznost-mijenja-izbornu-matematiku-tk-koliko-glasova-ce-strankama-trebati-za-mandate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tuzlainfo.ba\/index.php\/novosti\/item\/318129-niza-izlaznost-mijenja-izbornu-matematiku-tk-koliko-glasova-ce-strankama-trebati-za-mandate\/","title":{"rendered":"Ni\u017ea izlaznost mijenja izbornu matematiku TK: Koliko glasova \u0107e strankama trebati za mandate?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Znatno ni\u017ea izlaznost na ovogodi\u0161njim Op\u0107im izborima mogla bi imati veoma va\u017ean utjecaj na raspodjelu mandata u Skup\u0161tini Tuzlanskog kantona. Ukoliko kona\u010dan broj bira\u010da koji su glasali bude oko <strong>150.000<\/strong>, izborni prag izra\u017een u apsolutnom broju glasova mogao bi biti znatno ni\u017ei nego prije \u010detiri godine.<\/p>\n<p>Na izborima 2022. godine za Skup\u0161tinu Tuzlanskog kantona obra\u0111en je <strong>215.831 glasa\u010dki listi\u0107<\/strong>. Od toga je pribli\u017eno 92,9 posto bilo va\u017ee\u0107ih, odnosno ne\u0161to vi\u0161e od 200.000 glasova. Kako izborni prag iznosi tri posto va\u017ee\u0107ih glasova, za ulazak u raspodjelu mandata tada je bilo potrebno pribli\u017eno <strong>6.000 glasova<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Ukoliko na ovogodi\u0161njim izborima bude oko <strong>150.000 predatih listi\u0107a<\/strong>, a procenat va\u017ee\u0107ih i neva\u017ee\u0107ih bude pribli\u017eno isti kao prije \u010detiri godine, moglo bi biti oko <strong>139.000 do 140.000 va\u017ee\u0107ih glasova<\/strong>. Tri posto od tog broja iznosi pribli\u017eno <strong>4.180 do 4.200 glasova<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>To zna\u010di da bi izborni prag, izra\u017een kroz broj glasova, mogao biti ni\u017ei za pribli\u017eno <strong>1.800 glasova<\/strong>, odnosno oko 30 posto u odnosu na prethodne izbore. Stranci kojoj je prije \u010detiri godine trebalo oko 6.000 glasova da uop\u0107e u\u0111e u raspodjelu mandata, ove godine bi za prelazak praga moglo biti dovoljno ne\u0161to vi\u0161e od 4.000 glasova.<\/p>\n<p>Takav razvoj posebno bi mogao odgovarati manjim politi\u010dkim subjektima. Ako se glasovi rasporede na ve\u0107i broj lista, nekoliko stranaka koje bi uz izlaznost iz 2022. ostale ispod praga sada bi sa \u010detiri do pet hiljada glasova mogle u\u0107i u raspodjelu mandata.<\/p>\n<p>Ipak, <strong>prelazak praga od tri posto ne zna\u010di automatski i osvajanje mandata<\/strong>. Nakon utvr\u0111ivanja stranaka koje su pre\u0161le prag slijedi raspodjela ukupno 35 mjesta u Skup\u0161tini TK prema izbornoj formuli. Zbog toga \u0107e za posljednje mandate biti va\u017ean odnos glasova svih stranaka koje pre\u0111u prag.<\/p>\n<p>Ako kao projekciju uzmemo <strong>150.000 bira\u010da i pribli\u017eno 139.365 va\u017ee\u0107ih listi\u0107a<\/strong>, ra\u010dunica izgleda ovako:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Procijenjeni broj va\u017ee\u0107ih glasova: 139.365<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Izborni prag od 3 posto: oko 4.181 glas<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>U takvom scenariju jedan mandat bi, kada bi se ukupan broj va\u017ee\u0107ih glasova samo matemati\u010dki podijelio sa 35 mjesta, predstavljao oko 3.982 glasa. Stvarna raspodjela, me\u0111utim, ne funkcioni\u0161e prostim dijeljenjem, pa \u0107e za mandat pojedinim listama biti potrebno vi\u0161e glasova.<\/p>\n<p>Kona\u010dna granica izbornog praga mo\u0107i \u0107e biti precizno izra\u010dunata tek kada bude poznat ukupan broj va\u017ee\u0107ih glasa\u010dkih listi\u0107a. U kona\u010dni rezultat ulaze i glasovi koji se obra\u0111uju nakon izbornog dana, pa je ra\u010dunica od oko <strong>4.200 glasova za prag trenutno projekcija zasnovana na pretpostavci od 150.000 predatih listi\u0107a<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Ukoliko se takva izlaznost potvrdi, ovogodi\u0161nji izbori mogli bi donijeti zanimljiviju borbu za posljednja mjesta u Skup\u0161tini TK, jer \u0107e nekoliko hiljada glasova manje nego prije \u010detiri godine biti dovoljno za ulazak u krug stranaka koje u\u010destvuju u raspodjeli mandata. <strong>\/Tuzlainfo.ba\/<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Znatno ni\u017ea izlaznost na ovogodi\u0161njim Op\u0107im izborima mogla bi imati veoma va\u017ean utjecaj na raspodjelu mandata u Skup\u0161tini Tuzlanskog kantona. Ukoliko kona\u010dan broj bira\u010da koji su glasali bude oko 150.000, izborni prag izra\u017een u apsolutnom broju glasova mogao bi biti znatno ni\u017ei nego prije \u010detiri godine. Na izborima 2022. godine za Skup\u0161tinu Tuzlanskog kantona obra\u0111en [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":299914,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[304,15,12],"tags":[475,567],"class_list":["post-318129","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-istaknuto","category-izbori-clanci","category-novosti","tag-izbori","tag-skupstina-tk"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Ni\u017ea izlaznost mijenja izbornu matematiku TK: Koliko glasova \u0107e strankama trebati za mandate?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/tuzlainfo.ba\/index.php\/novosti\/item\/318129-niza-izlaznost-mijenja-izbornu-matematiku-tk-koliko-glasova-ce-strankama-trebati-za-mandate\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"bs_BA\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Ni\u017ea izlaznost mijenja izbornu matematiku TK: Koliko glasova \u0107e strankama trebati za mandate?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Znatno ni\u017ea izlaznost na ovogodi\u0161njim Op\u0107im izborima mogla bi imati veoma va\u017ean utjecaj na raspodjelu mandata u Skup\u0161tini Tuzlanskog kantona. Ukoliko kona\u010dan broj bira\u010da koji su glasali bude oko 150.000, izborni prag izra\u017een u apsolutnom broju glasova mogao bi biti znatno ni\u017ei nego prije \u010detiri godine. 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