{"id":316799,"date":"2026-09-22T18:34:48","date_gmt":"2026-09-22T16:34:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tuzlainfo.ba\/?p=316799"},"modified":"2026-09-22T18:50:16","modified_gmt":"2026-09-22T16:50:16","slug":"izborna-matematika-koliko-treba-glasova-strankama-i-kandidatima-za-ulazak-u-skupstinu-tk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tuzlainfo.ba\/index.php\/clanci\/izbori-clanci\/item\/316799-izborna-matematika-koliko-treba-glasova-strankama-i-kandidatima-za-ulazak-u-skupstinu-tk\/","title":{"rendered":"Izborna matematika: Koliko treba glasova strankama i kandidatima za ulazak u Skup\u0161tinu TK?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Koliko glasova treba politi\u010dkoj stranci da osvoji mjesto u Skup\u0161tini Tuzlanskog kantona, a koliko pojedina\u010dnom kandidatu da postane zastupnik? Rezultati Op\u0107ih izbora 2022. daju dobar okvir za odgovor, bez obzira na to \u0161to \u0107e na izborima 2026. va\u017eiti i nova pravila koja ote\u017eavaju napredovanje kandidata sa ni\u017eih pozicija na listama.<\/p>\n

Na izborima 2022. u Tuzlanskom kantonu bilo je registrovano 428.876 bira\u010da, a za 35 mjesta u Skup\u0161tini TK borila su se 22 politi\u010dka subjekta sa ukupno 588 kandidata. Na kraju su bila 200.533 va\u017ee\u0107a glasa\u010dka listi\u0107a, a mandate je osvojilo osam politi\u010dkih subjekata.<\/p>\n

Konkurencija je ove godine ne\u0161to manja. Na kandidatskim listama za Skup\u0161tinu TK na Op\u0107im izborima 2026. nalazi se 18 politi\u010dkih subjekata i koalicija, koji \u0107e se boriti za ukupno 35 zastupni\u010dkih mjesta. To zna\u010di da \u0107e, uz izborni prag od tri posto, dio stranaka i koalicija ve\u0107 u prvoj fazi izborne matematike ostati izvan raspodjele mandata.<\/p>\n

Nekoliko stranaka koje su na pro\u0161lim izborima bile “ispod crte” sada nastupaju unutar koalicija kao \u0161to su NES koji sada nastupa zajedno sa PDA, zatim BPS koji glasove objedinjavava sa onim iz Tuzlanske alternative i BH Zelenim, ili Stranka penzionera koja nastupa zajedno sa NIP-om. Svi oni bi prema njihovim ra\u010dunicama trebali bit koniurentniji za prelazak izbornog praga, pa je za o\u010dekivati vi\u0161e politi\u010dkih subjekata u\u010destvuju u raspodjeli 35 kantonalnih mandata.<\/p>\n

Oko 6.000 glasova bila je prva granica<\/h2>\n

Da bi politi\u010dki subjekt u\u010destvovao u raspodjeli mandata, mora pre\u0107i izborni prag od tri posto va\u017ee\u0107ih glasova. To pravilo ostaje klju\u010dno i za razumijevanje izbora 2026.<\/p>\n

Ako za primjer uzmemo rezultat iz 2022. godine, tri posto od 200.533 va\u017ee\u0107a listi\u0107a bilo je pribli\u017eno 6.016 glasova<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Koliko je ta granica va\u017ena najbolje pokazuje rezultat dvije stranke. Na\u0161a stranka je sa 7.062 glasa ili 3,52 posto<\/strong> osvojila jedan mandat, dok je SBB sa 5.063 glasa ili 2,52 posto<\/strong> ostao bez mandata.<\/p>\n

Naravno, prelazak tri posto ne garantuje automatski mandat, ve\u0107 samo omogu\u0107ava politi\u010dkom subjektu da u\u010destvuje u njegovoj raspodjeli.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Koliko je glasova donosilo mandate?<\/h2>\n

Najvi\u0161e glasova 2022. osvojila je SDA \u2013 60.559<\/strong>, \u0161to joj je donijelo 13 mandata. SDP je sa 37.156 glasova<\/strong> osvojio osam, DF\/GS sa 20.705<\/strong> \u010detiri, a PDA sa 16.102 glasa<\/strong> tri mandata.<\/p>\n

Stranka za BiH je sa 10.755 i Narod i pravda sa 10.606 glasova dobila po dva mandata. Dva mandata pripala su i listi SDBiH\/Zeleni pokret sa 8.002 glasa, dok je Na\u0161a stranka sa 7.062 glasa dobila jedan.<\/p>\n

Kada se ukupni broj glasova podijeli brojem osvojenih mandata, vidi se da je jedan mandat ove stranke u prosjeku \u201eko\u0161tao\u201c izme\u0111u pribli\u017eno 4.000 i 7.000 glasova<\/strong>. To, me\u0111utim, nije izborna kvota niti broj koji garantuje mandat, nego samo ilustracija rezultata iz 2022. godine.<\/p>\n

Kod pojedina\u010dnih kandidata ra\u010dunica je druga\u010dija. Prvo politi\u010dki subjekt osvaja odre\u0111eni broj mandata, a potom se utvr\u0111uje kojim kandidatima sa njegove liste oni pripadaju.<\/p>\n

Na izborima 2022. kandidat je mogao zna\u010dajno promijeniti po\u010detni redoslijed na listi ako je osvojio najmanje 10 posto glasova koje je dobila njegova lista<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Zato je, primjerice, unutar stranke koja je osvojila oko 60.000 glasova za prelazak tog praga trebalo pribli\u017eno 6.000 li\u010dnih glasova<\/strong>, dok je kod stranke sa oko 7.000 glasova bilo dovoljno ne\u0161to vi\u0161e od 700<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

To je omogu\u0107avalo kandidatima sa ni\u017eih mjesta da velikim brojem preferencijalnih glasova presko\u010de one koji su na kandidatskoj listi bili ispred njih.<\/p>\n

Na izborima 2026. pravila su stro\u017eija<\/h2>\n

Tu dolazimo do jedne od va\u017enijih razlika u odnosu na izbore prije \u010detiri godine.<\/p>\n

Na izborima 2022. bira\u010d je unutar odabrane kandidatske liste mogao ozna\u010diti ve\u0107i broj kandidata, bez dana\u0161njeg ograni\u010denja na tri. Za izbore 2026. bira\u010d mo\u017ee dati preferencijalni glas za najvi\u0161e tri kandidata sa jedne liste<\/strong>. Ako ozna\u010di vi\u0161e od tri, glas politi\u010dkom subjektu ostaje va\u017ee\u0107i, ali se preferencijalni glasovi ne ra\u010dunaju.<\/p>\n

Istovremeno je prag koji kandidat mora dosti\u0107i da bi preferencijalnim glasovima utjecao na redoslijed pove\u0107an sa 10 na 20 posto glasova njegove liste<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
Foto: Arhiva<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Prakti\u010dna razlika je velika. Na rezultatu SDA iz 2022. od 60.559 glasova, stari prag od 10 posto iznosio bi oko 6.056 glasova<\/strong>, dok bi prag od 20 posto iznosio oko 12.112 glasova<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Kod liste sa pribli\u017eno 10.000 glasova granica raste sa oko 1.000 na oko 2.000, a kod liste sa 7.000 glasova sa pribli\u017eno 700 na 1.400 glasova.<\/p>\n

Zbog toga \u0107e na izborima 2026. kandidatima sa za\u010delja liste biti te\u017ee da samo preferencijalnim glasovima naprave veliki skok prema vrhu.<\/p>\n

Ako bi broj va\u017ee\u0107ih glasova bio sli\u010dan onome iz 2022, izborni prag za stranke ponovo bi se kretao oko 6.000 glasova<\/strong>. Rezultati posljednjih izbora tako\u0111er pokazuju da je za jedan mandat u praksi bilo potrebno nekoliko hiljada glasova liste.<\/p>\n

Za pojedina\u010dnog kandidata, me\u0111utim, nema univerzalne brojke. Njegov rezultat zavisi prije svega od toga koliko glasova osvoji njegova lista, koliko mandata joj pripadne, njegove po\u010detne pozicije i broja preferencijalnih glasova.<\/p>\n

A upravo \u0107e promjene \u2013 najvi\u0161e tri preferencijalna glasa i prag od 20 posto umjesto 10 posto<\/strong> \u2013 biti jedna od va\u017enijih razlika izme\u0111u izbora 2022. i 2026. Kome \u0107e i\u0107i u korist, a kome ne trebali bi znati ve\u0107 4. oktobra u pono\u0107. \/Tuzlainfo.ba\/<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Koliko glasova treba politi\u010dkoj stranci da osvoji mjesto u Skup\u0161tini Tuzlanskog kantona, a koliko pojedina\u010dnom kandidatu da postane zastupnik? Rezultati Op\u0107ih izbora 2022. daju dobar okvir za odgovor, bez obzira na to \u0161to \u0107e na izborima 2026. va\u017eiti i nova pravila koja ote\u017eavaju napredovanje kandidata sa ni\u017eih pozicija na listama. Na izborima 2022. u Tuzlanskom […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":299914,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[304,15,306],"tags":[475,13955],"class_list":["post-316799","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-istaknuto","category-izbori-clanci","category-preporucujemo","tag-izbori","tag-izbori-2026"],"yoast_head":"\nIzborna matematika: Koliko treba glasova strankama i kandidatima za ulazak u Skup\u0161tinu TK?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/tuzlainfo.ba\/index.php\/clanci\/izbori-clanci\/item\/316799-izborna-matematika-koliko-treba-glasova-strankama-i-kandidatima-za-ulazak-u-skupstinu-tk\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"bs_BA\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Izborna matematika: Koliko treba glasova strankama i kandidatima za ulazak u Skup\u0161tinu TK?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Koliko glasova treba politi\u010dkoj stranci da osvoji mjesto u Skup\u0161tini Tuzlanskog kantona, a koliko pojedina\u010dnom kandidatu da postane zastupnik? 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