{"id":315272,"date":"2026-09-07T21:50:38","date_gmt":"2026-09-07T19:50:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tuzlainfo.ba\/?p=315272"},"modified":"2026-09-07T21:52:01","modified_gmt":"2026-09-07T19:52:01","slug":"povecanje-je-moguce-ovaj-iznos-minimalne-plate-u-fbih-realno-mozemo-ocekivati","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tuzlainfo.ba\/index.php\/bosna-i-hercegovina\/item\/315272-povecanje-je-moguce-ovaj-iznos-minimalne-plate-u-fbih-realno-mozemo-ocekivati\/","title":{"rendered":"Pove\u0107anje je mogu\u0107e: Ovaj iznos minimalne plate u FBiH realno mo\u017eemo o\u010dekivati"},"content":{"rendered":"

Predsjednik SDP-a i federalni premijer Nermin Nik\u0161i\u0107 najavio je u predizbornom programu svoje stranke da bi minimalna plata<\/strong><\/span><\/a> u Federaciji Bosne i Hercegovine u naredne \u010detiri godine trebala porasti na 1.500 KM, dok bi prosje\u010dna plata dostigla 2.500 KM.<\/p>\n

\u201eTreba nam plata od koje se mo\u017ee \u017eivjeti. Naredna minimalna plata \u0107e biti 1.500 KM, \u0161to \u0107e zna\u010diti i rast prosje\u010dne plate na 2.500 KM. To \u0107e iziskivati ve\u0107u produktivnost, ve\u0107e investicije i rastere\u0107enje rada. Ne ka\u017eemo da \u0107e se to dogoditi preko no\u0107i\u201c, rekao je Nik\u0161i\u0107 predstavljaju\u0107i program SDP-a za period 2026\u20132030. godine.<\/p>\n

Koliko je takvo obe\u0107anje realno? Analiza aktuelnih podataka Federalnog zavoda za statistiku, Vlade FBiH, Porezne uprave i projekcija Me\u0111unarodnog monetarnog fonda pokazuje da odgovor nije jednostavno \u201eda\u201c ili \u201ene\u201c. Do minimalne plate od 1.500 KM administrativno se mo\u017ee do\u0107i, ali bi njeno ekonomski odr\u017eivo pove\u0107anje zahtijevalo znatno br\u017ei rast produktivnosti i plata nego \u0161to trenutno predvi\u0111aju relevantne makroekonomske projekcije.<\/p>\n

Porast od \u010dak 46 posto<\/h3>\n

Da bi sa sada\u0161njih 1.027 KM stigla do 1.500 KM za \u010detiri godine, minimalna plata morala bi ukupno porasti za oko 46 posto<\/strong>, odnosno u prosjeku pribli\u017eno 9,9 posto godi\u0161nje<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Upravo tu po\u010dinje problem sa sada\u0161njim sistemom.<\/p>\n

Prema va\u017ee\u0107oj metodologiji u FBiH, minimalna plata se uskla\u0111uje uzimaju\u0107i po 50 posto rasta potro\u0161a\u010dkih cijena i realnog BDP-a. Za odre\u0111ivanje minimalne plate od 1.027 KM kori\u0161teni su rast cijena od 3,6 posto i realni rast BDP-a od 1,8 posto, \u0161to je dalo pove\u0107anje od 2,7 posto.<\/p>\n

Ako bi se postoje\u0107a formula nastavila primjenjivati, a inflacija i privredni rast kretali pribli\u017eno prema sada\u0161njim projekcijama MMF-a, minimalna plata 2030. godine bila bi mnogo bli\u017ee 1.150 nego 1.500 KM<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

MMF za Bosnu i Hercegovinu trenutno o\u010dekuje realni rast BDP-a od 2 posto u 2026, 2,7 posto u 2027, te oko 3 posto godi\u0161nje od 2028. do 2030. godine. Inflacija bi, nakon o\u010dekivanih 5,4 posto u 2026, trebala pasti na 3,1 posto u 2027. te pribli\u017eno 2 posto u narednim godinama.<\/p>\n

Ako se te vrijednosti ubace u sada\u0161nju federalnu formulu, dobija se pribli\u017ena putanja od oko 1.065 KM, zatim 1.096 KM, 1.123 KM i na kraju oko 1.151 KM<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Nije realno, ali…<\/h3>\n

Drugim rije\u010dima, 1.500 KM nije realan rezultat postoje\u0107eg automatskog sistema uskla\u0111ivanja<\/strong>. Za takav iznos bila bi potrebna izmjena formule, nova politi\u010dka odluka o sna\u017enijem pove\u0107anju ili kombinacija vi\u0161e reformi.<\/p>\n

To, me\u0111utim, ne zna\u010di da je 1.500 KM matemati\u010dki ili institucionalno nemogu\u0107e. Federacija je ve\u0107 pokazala da vlast mo\u017ee napraviti veliki diskrecioni skok. Minimalna plata je od 1. januara 2025. pove\u0107ana sa 619 na 1.000 KM, odnosno za vi\u0161e od 61 posto u jednom potezu.<\/p>\n

Takav primjer pokazuje da Vlada mo\u017ee politi\u010dkom odlukom promijeniti nivo minimalne plate mnogo br\u017ee nego \u0161to bi to proizvela ekonomska formula. Ali pitanje nije samo mo\u017ee li Vlada propisati 1.500 KM, nego mo\u017ee li privreda taj iznos dugoro\u010dno podnijeti bez ozbiljnijih posljedica po zaposlenost, cijene i konkurentnost.<\/p>\n

Tu je posebno zanimljiv drugi dio Nik\u0161i\u0107evog obe\u0107anja \u2013 prosje\u010dna plata od 2.500 KM.<\/p>\n

Prema Federalnom zavodu za statistiku, prosje\u010dna neto plata u FBiH u junu 2026. iznosila je 1.714 KM<\/strong>, dok je prosje\u010dna bruto plata bila 2.681 KM.<\/p>\n

Da bi prosje\u010dna neto plata do\u0161la sa 1.714 na 2.500 KM do 2030, tako\u0111er bi morala rasti gotovo identi\u010dnom brzinom kao najavljena minimalna plata \u2013 oko 9,9 posto godi\u0161nje<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Nema brzog rasta<\/h3>\n

Ovdje postoji jedna ekonomski logi\u010dna stvar u SDP-ovoj projekciji: sada\u0161nja minimalna plata od 1.027 KM predstavlja oko 60 posto trenutne prosje\u010dne plate od 1.714 KM. Najavljena minimalna plata od 1.500 KM bila bi tako\u0111er ta\u010dno 60 posto najavljene prosje\u010dne plate od 2.500 KM.<\/p>\n

Dakle, kada bi prosje\u010dne plate zaista porasle na 2.500 KM, minimalna plata od 1.500 KM ne bi bila radikalno vi\u0161a u odnosu na ostatak tr\u017ei\u0161ta rada nego \u0161to je minimalac danas.<\/p>\n

Problem je u tome \u0161to makroekonomske projekcije trenutno ne predvi\u0111aju tako brz rast ukupne ekonomije.<\/p>\n

MMF o\u010dekuje da nominalni BDP Bosne i Hercegovine poraste sa oko 61 milijardu KM u 2026. na 77,3 milijarde KM 2030. godine. To je prosje\u010dan nominalni rast od pribli\u017eno 6,1 posto godi\u0161nje<\/strong>, znatno manje od gotovo deset posto godi\u0161nje koliko bi trebalo za ostvarenje Nik\u0161i\u0107evog scenarija plata, ukoliko se ne dogodi sna\u017enije preusmjeravanje ekonomskog dohotka prema radnicima ili ubrzanje produktivnosti.<\/p>\n

I sam Nik\u0161i\u0107 je zato u najavi naveo tri klju\u010dna uslova: ve\u0107u produktivnost, ve\u0107e investicije i rastere\u0107enje rada<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Rastere\u0107enje rada ve\u0107 je djelimi\u010dno po\u010delo. Od 1. jula 2025. zbirna stopa doprinosa na teret poslodavca smanjena je, \u010dime je ukupno optere\u0107enje tro\u0161kova rada ubla\u017eeno.<\/p>\n

Vlada je, tako\u0111er, poslodavcima i tokom 2026. omogu\u0107ila neoporezivu pomo\u0107 radnicima do 300 KM mjese\u010dno. Takve mjere pove\u0107avaju raspolo\u017eiva primanja radnika bez identi\u010dnog rasta tro\u0161kova poslodavca, ali nisu isto \u0161to i trajno pove\u0107anje osnovne plate.<\/p>\n

Jo\u0161 jedan podatak pokazuje da prethodno pove\u0107anje minimalca nije dovelo do sloma tr\u017ei\u0161ta rada. Porezna uprava FBiH je na kraju juna 2026. evidentirala 548.609 zaposlenih<\/strong>, dok je broj aktivnih poslovnih subjekata porastao na 137.155.<\/p>\n

Mo\u017ee li pove\u0107anje bez posljedica?<\/h3>\n

To ipak ne zna\u010di da bi svako naredno pove\u0107anje automatski pro\u0161lo bez posljedica. Efekat minimalne plate nije linearan: razlika je kada se pove\u0107ava sa veoma niske osnovice i kada se pribli\u017ei platama koje trenutno primaju radnici u trgovini, ugostiteljstvu, tekstilnoj industriji, dijelu proizvodnje i drugim niskoprofitnim djelatnostima.<\/p>\n

MMF je upravo zbog toga upozorio da daljnji rast jedini\u010dnih tro\u0161kova rada mo\u017ee ugroziti konkurentnost Bosne i Hercegovine te preporu\u010dio da rast plata bude pra\u0107en produktivno\u0161\u0107u, investicijama i strukturnim reformama.<\/p>\n

Posebno bi osjetljiva bila izvozna preduze\u0107a koja proizvode robu za evropsko tr\u017ei\u0161te. Firma koja svoje proizvode prodaje po cijeni koju odre\u0111uje me\u0111unarodno tr\u017ei\u0161te ne mo\u017ee jednostavno prenijeti svako pove\u0107anje plata na kupca. Ako joj produktivnost ne raste, ostaju smanjenje profita, pove\u0107anje cijena gdje je mogu\u0107e, automatizacija, smanjenje broja zaposlenih ili preseljenje dijela proizvodnje.<\/p>\n

S druge strane, nedostatak radne snage i odlazak stanovni\u0161tva ve\u0107 sada vr\u0161e pritisak na poslodavce da pove\u0107avaju plate i bez dr\u017eavne intervencije. U takvoj situaciji minimalac mo\u017ee imati manji negativan efekat nego u ekonomiji sa velikim vi\u0161kom radnika, jer dio tr\u017ei\u0161ta ionako mora podizati zarade kako bi zadr\u017eao zaposlenike.<\/p>\n

Zato se Nik\u0161i\u0107evo obe\u0107anje mo\u017ee posmatrati kroz dva potpuno razli\u010dita pitanja.<\/p>\n

Ako je pitanje mo\u017ee li Vlada FBiH do 2030. propisati minimalnu platu od 1.500 KM<\/strong>, odgovor je \u2013 mo\u017ee. Prethodni skok sa 619 na 1.000 KM pokazuje da je takvu politi\u010dku odluku mogu\u0107e donijeti.<\/p>\n

Ako je pitanje mo\u017ee li do 1.500 KM do\u0107i prirodnim rastom prema sada\u0161njoj formuli i trenutnim projekcijama ekonomskog razvoja<\/strong>, odgovor je \u2013 vrlo te\u0161ko. Prema sada\u0161njim parametrima, rezultat bi bio bli\u017ee 1.150 KM.<\/p>\n

A ako je pitanje mo\u017ee li minimalac od 1.500 KM biti ekonomski odr\u017eiv bez ve\u0107ih poreme\u0107aja<\/strong>, odgovor zavisi upravo od onoga \u0161to je i sam Nik\u0161i\u0107 naveo: da li \u0107e do 2030. produktivnost, investicije i prosje\u010dne plate zna\u010dajno porasti te ho\u0107e li biti dodatno smanjeni porezi i doprinosi na rad.<\/p>\n

Ukoliko prosje\u010dna neto plata zaista dostigne 2.500 KM, minimalac od 1.500 KM bio bi pribli\u017eno u istom odnosu prema prosje\u010dnoj plati kao dana\u0161nji minimalac od 1.027 KM. U tom scenariju obe\u0107anje djeluje mnogo realnije.<\/p>\n

Me\u0111utim, da bi se do\u0161lo do prosje\u010dnih 2.500 KM, plate bi morale rasti oko deset posto godi\u0161nje tokom \u010detiri godine, dok MMF trenutno o\u010dekuje znatno sporiji rast realne ekonomije. Zato je u ovom trenutku 1.500 KM vi\u0161e ambiciozan politi\u010dko-ekonomski cilj nego rezultat koji proizlazi iz postoje\u0107ih trendova<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Drugim rije\u010dima: brojka nije nemogu\u0107a, ali do nje se ne\u0107e sti\u0107i samo \u010dekanjem da ekonomija nastavi sada\u0161njim tempom.\/Tuzlainfo.ba\/<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Predsjednik SDP-a i federalni premijer Nermin Nik\u0161i\u0107 najavio je u predizbornom programu svoje stranke da bi minimalna plata u Federaciji Bosne i Hercegovine u naredne \u010detiri godine trebala porasti na 1.500 KM, dok bi prosje\u010dna plata dostigla 2.500 KM. \u201eTreba nam plata od koje se mo\u017ee \u017eivjeti. Naredna minimalna plata \u0107e biti 1.500 KM, \u0161to […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":160169,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[291,304],"tags":[532,4741],"class_list":["post-315272","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bosna-i-hercegovina","category-istaknuto","tag-fbih","tag-minimalna-plata"],"yoast_head":"\nPove\u0107anje je mogu\u0107e: Ovaj iznos minimalne plate u FBiH realno mo\u017eemo o\u010dekivati<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/tuzlainfo.ba\/index.php\/bosna-i-hercegovina\/item\/315272-povecanje-je-moguce-ovaj-iznos-minimalne-plate-u-fbih-realno-mozemo-ocekivati\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"bs_BA\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Pove\u0107anje je mogu\u0107e: Ovaj iznos minimalne plate u FBiH realno mo\u017eemo o\u010dekivati\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Predsjednik SDP-a i federalni premijer Nermin Nik\u0161i\u0107 najavio je u predizbornom programu svoje stranke da bi minimalna plata u Federaciji Bosne i Hercegovine u naredne \u010detiri godine trebala porasti na 1.500 KM, dok bi prosje\u010dna plata dostigla 2.500 KM. \u201eTreba nam plata od koje se mo\u017ee \u017eivjeti. 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